The Da Vinci Code #1

           I decided to read The Da Vinci Code as my free read choice. I have not heard much about this from other people in my classes, but I have heard a lot about it because of the massive amount of popularity it had received. What I have heard is that it is about an undercover organization that has to do with Christianity. That is certainly not an overwhelming amount of information, however I have heard that this is book is the kind that you won’t be able to put down. That will be a pretty big change when in comparison to my previous Reader’s Workshop books. Hopefully this book lives up to its immense reputation.

The Signal and the Noise #3

I really enjoyed completing this book. This book, was much more than an enjoyable read, but something I learned a lot from and can apply this information to my life when I am put in a scenario when I have to make prediction. As I had mention in my previous blogs about this book, the purpose of this book is to inform the readers on how to distinguish useful information (the signal) between the distracting information (the noise) in order to make more accurate predictions. Nate Silver, the author, uses each chapter as a new strategy when predicting and then proceeds to give either a personal anecdote, such as with his chapter about the poker bubble, or a popular issue today, like his chapter Rage Against the Machine, which examines Artificial Intelligence in technology today, and how that effects their predictions.

This has been my favorite book so far in this reader’s workshop.  I particularly enjoyed how Silver uses very topical issues to analyze. My favorite part of the second half of the book was his analysis of technology and human nature or your “gut” feeling and how these two opposites play a role in the prediction. He concludes that both play a significant role in an attempt to predicting an outcome or result. His main examples were two that I recognized, the story of a Lakers fan and Deep Blue. He talked about how a fan, trusted his gut, which was telling him that the Lakers were going to win the NBA championship, despite the 6.5-1 odds against him. The fan’s reasoning behind this was that the Lakers were lacking chemistry, which no statistic has found out how to measure accurately, and that was the reasoning for their slow start. The fan trusted his gut, bet his life savings on the Lakers winning the championship, and won half a million dollars. Silver explained that the fan had though the Lakers odds were better than 1 in 6, and the fan had said he though there odds were about 1-4. Silver introduced a formula he uses for predictions, which he explains in reference to the Laker’s fan’s bet on page 238, “The theoretical profit of the bet was $70,000 dollars, and that consisted of a 25 percent chance of winning 520,000 and a 75 percent chance of losing 80,000 averaged together.”

Outcome	Probability	Net Profit
Lakers Win Championship	25%	520,000
Lakers Do Not Win Championship	75%	-80,000
Expected Profit		70,000

When putting predictions into this formula, it is obvious to see why this was a smart prediction   The same fan also placed several bets on the Cleveland Cavaliers scoring more points in their game than expected. His reasoning behind this was because their point guard was a free agent next year and would try harder, and also play at a quicker pace so they could more possessions, which would therefore increase his stats that season.

 On the other hand there was Deep Blue. Deep Blue was a chess machine that was designed by IBM which used statistics to determine which move had the greatest probability of guaranteeing a win. He said how both  of these are in some way successful, they both have their faults, as the Lakers fan only won about 58% of his bets. Deep Blue had also lost to Grandmaster in chess, when the grandmaster, Garry Kasparov, did as Silver explained on page 271, “Kasparov had taken the database out after just three moves. As we have learned throughout this book, purely statistical approaches toward forecasting are ineffective.”  I thought that this part can be applied to life in many scenarios in life and will therefore be very useful.

I would recommend this book to anyone, before reading I would advise having some knowledge about the economy in this decade, especially in the recent recession, as multiple chapters in this book are devoted to uncovering the reasons why no one was able to predict the recession. This is a book that you can truly learn something from that will benefit you later in life, which is why I think everyone should read it.

The Signal and the Noise #2

As I am about halfway done The Signal and the Noise, I must say that I am thoroughly enjoying it, and it thus far has been my favorite book I have read for this blog. Nate Silver, due to his background as a statistician rather than a writer (See first post for this blog) brings a very unique writing style to the book. I find it very interesting to read about the unique viewpoints he looks at things through. In his opening chapter, he talks about Johannes Guttenberg, he then goes on to talk about how Guttenberg had invented the printing press. His reasoning for telling the story of Guttenberg was, as Silver says on page 2, “Johannes Guttenberg’s invention in 1440 made information available to the masses, and the explosion of ideas produced had unintended consequences.” Silver is that the printing press led to a spike in information which in effect led to a spike in technology which increased the amount of information we have today, but the unintended causes is that today we have more information than we need when solving the majority of things.  With a plethora of information today, we need to be able to separate the information that is real evidence, which he refers to as the signal, and the information that distracts us from the evidence, which he refers to as the noise. Silver uses this book to analyze people’s predictions. He focus on wide variety which jumps from predictions about what the economy will do, what Dustin Pedroia will do in his baseball career, what the weather will be like, to the chances of an earthquake happening.

 I particularly enjoy the similes and analogies he uses to illustrate complicated events in simpler way. In example of this would be why house prices had increased such a huge amount and made them unaffordable to many Americans. He introduces the terms negative and positive feedback. To describe negative feedback, his example is kids running a lemonade stand, and if kids across the street open up a stand, the price of the original stands lemonade will more than likely go down due to competition. This would be an example of negative feedback, and then he describes the housing industry as having positive feedback, as to determine the price of house, we often use comparisons, so if one house’s price rises, another few probably will, which will cause another few after that, until the price of the average home has skyrocketed and the market has imploded. He humorously states the effect of positive feedback on a lemonade stand, writing on page 30, “Eventually you’re charging 46,000 for a glass of lemonade-the average income in the United States each year-and all 300 million Americans are lined up around the block to get their fix.

 I also think he does a very good job of describing how “the noise” is very often our own human bias. He describes on page 137, with a graph, he how weatherman often will stray from predicting there is an exactly 50% chance of rain, as then it is a toss-up and the listeners will be disappointed they won’t know if it will rain tomorrow. Silver also had discovered that when there is a 50% chance of rain and weatherman don’t want to say 50%, they will more often than not go to 60%. The reason behind this, as Silver explains, is that if you say it probably isn’t going to rain and it does, then you ruin everyone’s picnic, however if you say it’s going to rain, and it doesn’t, then people are delighted and view it as an “extra” day of sunlight.  

                  

             (Prediction on X axis, actual result on Y axis)

He also mentions how on a TV show which features former politicians debating what will occur next in political races, they often tend to dramatize for the television. For example, Silver found out that if one guy said that something was certainly going to occur, it would only occur about 75% of the time. He also keyed in on an episode in the week leading up to the Obama-McCain election, in which out of the four contestants, only one said Obama would win in a large margin, as he was favored to and as he did, and the other three either gave Obama a slight advantage or said it was too close to call. Their goal of this, as Silver writes, is to make it seem the race is much closer than it actually is, so people will continue to tune in to hear updates.

This book is similar to Malcolm Gladwell’s books, however, rather than scientific studies, this book is a lot more statistically and mathematically focused, as many of the chapters are filled with graphs, charts and tables. However, I think he uses graphs, charts and tables very effectively. A great example of this is on page 81-83, in which he presents two graphs of the average baseball player’s performance in relation to his age. He first presents a graph that would accurately represent the curve that a player goes through as he rises at a younger age until about 27 years old, and then they start to decline. Then, two page later he presents a “noisy” graph that is misleading and that you cannot draw as many conclusion from.

(Accurate graph on the left, noisy graph on the right)

  As I had stated earlier, I am greatly enjoying this book and I look forward to finishing it.

 

The Signal and the Noise #1

            For my nonfiction book I will be reading the signal and the noise, by Nate Silver. The reason I am reading this book is because my dad had brought up Nate Silver in a car ride while the two of us were talking about March Madness Brackets. My dad told me that Nate Silver was an ingenious statistician who, among other things, runs a website called 538.com, had predicted all 50 of the state results correctly in the 2012 presidential election, and 49 of the 50 correctly in 2008, he missed Indiana by 1%, but also got all 35 winners of U.S. senate races that year. He had also developed a system for forecasting the performance and career development of Major League Baseball players, which he sold to Baseball Prospectus in 2003 and this year he developed a formula that predicts the percent of each team in the tournament to make it to each round (Right image). In 2009 he ranked one of the 100 most influential people in the world by Times magazine. In this book, Nate Silver will examine the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from ever increasing data, and to do so, he looks at a wide variety of fields. I predict that this book will be the most difficult on I have read yet, as whenever my dad gives me a book it is more often than not filled with business jargon, however, I think I will enjoy this book a lot because I am very interested in the field of statistics.

Animal Farm #3

I thought this book was a pleasurable read. It had a very unique plot which made it very interesting to you read and helped simplify the issue. However, I usually enjoy more of an exciting book, and this plot was mostly predictable, however they may be my fault for looking into it too much, because it seemed pretty obvious at most points what was going to happen. I was a little disappointment with the actual literature too. I was expecting this to be a more advanced book because of the popularity of it and the awards that it had won. I thought the actual literature and plot were around a Middle School level, and though it had a unique plot, I think you could make the argument that this book was overhyped. I liked what George Orwell did with each character representing someone in Russia, such as the two pig leaders, Napoleon and Snowball, are represent Joseph Stalin and Leon Trotsky. However, I think that with the actual acts of communism, they were too blatantly obvious about which parts were supposed to represent communism. In the middle of a speech being given by Snowball, on page 53, the book says “Napoleon stood up and, casting a peculiar sidelong look at Snowball uttered a high pitch whimper.” Then in the next paragraph it says “Nine enormous dogs wearing brass-studded collars came bounding into the barn. They dashed straight for snowball, who only sprang from his place just in time to escape their snapping jaws.” It also was very repeatable, as there were three times in this book that a commandment was changed for a higher standard of living for the upper class. It would have been more interesting if you had to discover the signs, like in real communism, where it is not as predictable and obvious. The ending, although it was interesting, didn’t quite come together completely.  I would say that this book is a nice short read, however it wasn’t something that you could delve into or obsess over. It was nice to read but didn’t quite reach my expectations.

(Napoleon and the person he symbolizes, Joseph Stalin)


I enjoyed it, but still...

Animal Farm #2

I am now halfway through Animal Farm and I have for the most part enjoyed it. One thing I had forgotten to mention in the first blog was that this is a fiction book that could be classified as an Allegory. To make a connection, in 8^th grade we watched an allegory about the Holocaust, in which they used animals and character named “the evil ones.” In the allegory, the evil ones would come and take each type of animal, one at a time, until only one species of animal, which would symbolize Jewish people, were left, and then “the evil one” took that species. Animal Farm is also an allegory, however instead of the animals portraying the Holocaust, they symbolize the USSR’s government system. It has an intriguing plot, in which the story starts out on a farm owned by a human named Mr. Jones. The animals are inspired by their leaders, two pigs (pigs are considered the most intelligent species in the story, also all animals have far superior talents, as most of the species learn how to read in the book), who convince them to rebel against their inconsiderate owner. They successfully drove their owner out and claimed the house. The two pigs who are leader are named Snowball and Napoleon. When they claim the helm of power, all the animals are filled with happiness from their recent victory, and Snowball and Napoleon write 7 commandments in which the animals must live by. However, as the story progresses, signs of corruption in communism start to appear. On page 24 the commandments are listed, and commandment number four says“No animal shall sleep in a bed.” However on page 69, one of the lesser animals, who does not have the intelligence of the superior pigs, notices that the pigs are sleeping in beds inside of the house. The animal, Clover, questions this, however she cannot read the commandments, so a pig just tells Clover that the sign says “It says, ‘No animals shall sleep in a bed with sheets.” There is also, not wanting to spoil too much, is blackmail and blaming between the two leaders and other signs of corruption such as lack of food on page 36. Overall I am enjoying the book, but I thought it would be more complex, however it seems that all Orwell has done is used animals to simplify the issue of communism. I would classify this books plot as a “which way is up,” because it all depends on which vantage point you're looking from.

 

Animal Farm #1

          For my classic, I will be reading Animal Farm by George Orwell. This book has received countless accolades in its existence. This will be the first book I have read by George Orwell, but from what I have heard about him, he is famous for his books on dystopian societies. Several people I know have read this book. They have told me that this is also a book on a dystopian society. George Orwell uses a farm and its animals as an Allegory for the Soviet Union in the Russian era under Joseph Stalin. This book is a vey short read, at just over 100 pages, however, I would guess that it will be a difficult read due to how much symbolism will be involved. The predictions for this book are pretty obvious, considering that it is based on a true story, so I will be reading more to enjoy the rich literature in this novel than for the unexpected twists.

 

The Burden of Proof #3

As I mentioned earlier in my blog, the book was made into a mini TV series, and deservedly so, as between this books intricate plot and its twists and turns, it was as if the book was made for the big screen. If you look at my second blog about this book, I had predicted that the two different storylines in the book, which were the protagonists Sandy Stern’s personal life and his life in law, that they would come together. I had thought that Sandy’s Stern’s personal life would have a prevalent effect on his legal career, and then vice-versa. These two different storylines also seemed to be correlated throughout the second half of the story, as if to add severity to emotions felt through parts of the story. An example of this would be on page 366, when Stern discovers his dead wife’s wedding ring, he exclaims “This is undoubtedly the ring she received the first time she was engaged.” Then, a mere 14 pages later, Stern gets increasingly frustrated with his client Dixon, as Dixon keeps avoiding his calls. Stern even tells Dixon’s secretary “Tell him if he leaves town without making time to see me I shall resign as his lawyer.”

I was correct about the two separate storyline merging by the end. The case is solved in Chapter 46, pages 464 -478, in which Stern hears the whole story from someone close to him, who had been withholding the information from him the entire time. Overall, I would say this was a very interesting read, it utilizes several literary elements such as parallel structure and foreshadowing. Though I said it was an interesting read, it can also be a bit of a drag. It is over 500 pages, and these aren’t all action-packed pages. I would recommend this book to anyone in high school, however you will enjoy it much more if you start the book with interest and background knowledge in the field of law. I would have found this book much more interesting and less confusing if I was well-versed in that field.

 

The Burden of Proof #2

           My book chronicles the life of Sandy Stern, who is a lawyer. This book was a sequel to the author Scott Turow’s book Presumed Innocent. This novel is very unique due to the fact that it deals with two separates parts of the story. The first side of the story deals with Sandy’s personal life. The story begins with Sandy’s wife being found dead when Sandy returns home from a business trip in Chicago. I originally had assumed that this would lead to the basis of the story, a mystery about how Sandy’s wife died. However this was not the case. What ends up happening throughout the first half of the book is that Sandy starts to learn many things about his wife’s very secretive life. On page 148-149, Sandy asked “Did my Wife have a virus, by the way? The lieutenant who Sandy was talking to responded “Herpes.” I would describe Sandy’s personal life as “from bad to worse”, as his wife dies, and he then figure out that she had herpes and that he could have herpes.

          The second side of the story deals with Sandy’s occupation as a lawyer. He is dealing with a case in which his client named Dixon. Dixon has been accused of trading ahead of the market. Sandy explains what Dixon does on page 178, when he says “Smaller orders were placed on the Kindle Exchange just before you went into the Chicago market with a large order that would affect prices everywhere. And thos kindle orders were always written with botched account numbers, so that after clearing, they would end up being credited in the house error account, leaving a profit just a few pennies shy of 600,000” At this point in the book, Sandy is unsure of whether himself and Dixon are in a favorable position, so I would label this one “Which way is up."

          I think Turow’s approach of splitting up Sandy’s life is very unique, and I would predict that in the end, the two sides of his life merge, with each one playing a significant role in the final outcome of the story. I also think that because of this unique organization, you could not accurately plot the story’s ups and downs unless you were to split up his personal and his work life, as some things go terrible in his personal life as some things go well in his work life. That is why I decided to present two different graphs. His personal life goes from bad to worse, as his wife dies, and then he finds out he has herpes. His legal side is up and down, but lacks extremes, and neither he nor his client is sure of how the case will end up.

              (Personal Life)                                                         (Occupational Life)

The Burden Of Proof #1

The book I will be reading is The Burden Of Proof I have chosen this book because I am interested in law and mystery, and that is was the blurb on the book cover seemed to entail. The author of this book is Scott Turow, who also wrote Presumed Innocent, which I have not read, however it includes the same characters, but a different plot. This book was also made into a television mini-series in 1991. The protagonist in the story is lawyer Sandy Stern, whose wife dies in the story and Stern starts to realize things about his family that he never knew. The book's genre is classified as legal thriller and a Crime Novel. After talking to my dad about this book, he told me that one of Scott Turow's first book's One L, which was about Turow's first year at Harvard Law School, the character Sandy Stern was used as an alias for my dad's old boss, and it then became sort of a running joke, as he would use it in most of his novels for the main character. One question I have is that I am not sure if this book will mostly focus on Sandy's work with law, or if the book will focus on more of an emotional standpoint of Sandy's interaction with his family.